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2024-12-13 04:57:05

CICC interprets the meeting of the Politburo in December: the fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year. CICC issued a document saying that the tone of the Politburo in September will be continued, and this Politburo meeting will further inject confidence into the market, and there will be many new formulations in policy. From the perspective of policy objectives, the demand for growth is more clear, and the expression of "property market and stock market" is also very clear. From the policy direction, expanding domestic demand ranks first, and the tendency to boost consumption and improve people's livelihood is further highlighted. From the policy tone, monetary and fiscal policies are more active, and "extraordinary countercyclical adjustment" is put forward for the first time. In terms of specific policy prospects, we believe that the following aspects are worthy of attention: the intensity of fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year; The loose space of monetary policy may be opened through comprehensive policies, and the structural monetary policy may be significantly overweight; Expand domestic demand in an all-round way, and incremental measures may focus more on consumption; Further promote reform and opening up. Generally speaking, the policy mix is in line with what we judge as "tight credit, loose money and wide finance" in the second half of the financial cycle.Galaxy Securities: Looking ahead, A-shares are expected to fluctuate upward. china galaxy Securities said that since September 24th, domestic policies have been intensively introduced. The convening of the Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party on December 9 pointed out the important direction for economic work in 2025, and at the same time released a more positive and promising policy signal, and then focused on the statement of the Central Economic Work Conference. With the accelerated implementation of the stock policy and the introduction of a package of incremental policies, the economic fundamentals are expected to show a gradual improvement trend. The policy expectation of "stabilizing the property market and stock market" will help boost investors' confidence and protect the long-term healthy development of the A-share market. Looking forward to the market outlook, A shares are expected to fluctuate upwards.A Chilean court revoked the government's ban on iron ore projects. According to La Tercera, an environmental court in Chile sided with Andeiron, a Chilean exploration and mining company, and declared the government's decision to reject Dominga's iron ore project invalid.


A Chilean court revoked the government's ban on iron ore projects. According to La Tercera, an environmental court in Chile sided with Andeiron, a Chilean exploration and mining company, and declared the government's decision to reject Dominga's iron ore project invalid.Japanese and Korean stock markets opened higher, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 0.55% to 39,375.49 points. South Korea's KOSPI index rose 1% to 2,384.51 points.Japan's Nikkei average index futures rose 0.23%.


Yardeni, Wall Street Strategist: The Federal Reserve should keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting. Yardeni Research believes that at the upcoming FOMC meeting, US policymakers should keep interest rates unchanged and assess the economic situation. "Policy committees should take time to see how the economy will evolve in the coming months after Trump wins the election," strategists such as Ed Yardeni said in the report. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, asserted at the last meeting that policymakers "can't (or won't) model the new government's fiscal policy before it is implemented". Although the impact of tariffs and tax cuts is still uncertain, the basic view is that inflation is still too high, real GDP growth is strong, and the labor market is close to full employment, which is likely to contradict the relaxation of monetary policy.In November, the annual rate of M2 money supply in Japan was 1.2%, and the previous value was 1.20%. M3 annual rate is 0.7%.Galaxy Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the fields of pig breeding and broiler breeding. The Galaxy Securities Research Report pointed out that: 1. Pig breeding: the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding has expanded. Based on the function value of fertile sows and MSY framework, the operation judgment of pig price in 2024 was basically verified. With regard to the trend of pig price in 2025, the annual average price runs relatively smoothly, and the difference lies in the continuous optimization of the total cost of excellent pig enterprises, which brings more than expected breeding profits. In addition, the impact point of the pig price in 2025 lies in the impact of the current winter climate change on the epidemic situation, which needs to be continuously tracked. It is suggested to pay attention to pig enterprises with leading/continuous improvement in cost control industry, relatively healthy funds and reasonable valuation. 2. Broiler breeding: 1) Yellow feather chicken: Many factors, such as low production capacity, may push up the price of yellow chicken, and the cost advantage of the head enterprise will be superimposed on the price to improve, and the profit elasticity has an advantage. It is recommended to pay attention to Lihua shares. 2) White feather chicken: In early December, avian influenza broke out in Oklahoma and New Zealand. New Zealand has announced that it will stop exporting poultry products; The introduction of Oklahoma, the only introduction state in the United States, is expected to be blocked. According to Boya Hexun, the domestic Anweijie poultry farm has received a notice of suspension of introduction; In other respects, the amount of seeds available in France and the reopening time of other States in the United States are still uncertain. If the production capacity of ancestral white chickens in China is reduced or the introduction is stopped due to the influence of overseas avian influenza, the industry boom cycle is expected to go up, and it is suggested to pay attention to the plate.

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